The Poetist

I have finally seen first-hand an Iowa caucus, that ground zero of American presidential politics. I saw it and it was entirely overwhelming. Caucus locations across the state were literally overwhelmed by the sheer numbers of people that showed up on January 3rd. My caucus expected 85 people and 243 showed up! I arrived at the cafeteria to witness 3 separate lines of people crowding the doorways and another small mob of people signing up at the caucus and registering to vote. The caucus chair, whose home I had canvassed prior to this night, was obviously not prepared for the huge crush of people. When it became clear that the amount of caucus-goers would just not fit into the cafeteria we had to move to the auditorium. Comparing war stories later that night and checking in with my precinct captains in the following days it became clear that this was the trend across Iowa. I heard of caucuses expecting 200 people and having 800 show up!

Of the 10 Des Moines precincts I was responsible for I attended the one not with the most identified support for John Edwards, which would have been easy, but the one with the highest delegate count, which was certainly the most challenging.  A portrait in numbers:  The caucus in this precinct elects 8 delegates (people who go on to vote for a candidate).  In 2004 75 people were expected at the caucus and 85 people showed up.  According to entry polling none of them caucused for John Edwards.  For 2008 we were expecting 96 people to show up and caucus.  Given that number, we needed 15 people to be viable and gain 1 delegate.  Our goal was to have 54 people caucus for John and thus earn 5 of the 8 delegates.  Given that nobody caucused for John in 04, having 54 supporters was certainly aiming high, but we had also identified 25 supporters and 5 leaners so the chances of us getting 2 delegates looked certain and 3 wasn’t even a stretch.  Of course we couldn’t know exactly how many supporters we’d need until we knew the total number of people at the caucus but one of our math-oriented organizers created a chart for us that showed, given the total number of people in attendance how many supporters we would need to earn an extra delegate.  Armed with that information I felt confident that we could make a showing in this precinct.

And then I walked into the room.  If I wore hats I’d tip mine off to Barack Obama for mobilizing 100,000 first time caucus-goers state-wide.  As it were in my precinct, we estimated 96 and 243 people showed up; viability leaped from 15 to 37.   Unfortunately a few of our supporters didn’t show up and had we been able to absorb the Biden and Richardson people we still could not have been viable.  After weeks of build-up and hard work (months even, for others) it was certainly a sobering sight to behold.  But we did well.  Even having been outspent 6 to 1 we beat the Clinton machine, and I believe that speaks volumes about the strength of John Edwards’ message

The final Des Moines Register poll came out last night; the results have Obama in the lead at 32, Clinton following at 25 and Edwards trailing at 24.  The most recent CNN poll put Obama and Clinton in the 30s and Edwards at 22.

I’m not worried.  The media has closed Edwards out of the race from the beginning, although anyone who takes a look at credible numbers has to acknowledge that the race is a veritable dead heat.  Let’s go over the numbers from the Des Moines Register Poll.  60% of the poll respondents have never caucused before.  This is significant because caucusing is not voting; it is far more complicated and requires a significantly longer time commitment.  People without caucus history are much less likely to caucus.  Obviously there are new caucus-goers every year, but I believe that number is generally around 20%.  Second, 45% of the respondents are Independents or Republicans.   I really fail to see why the latter group is relevant to a Democratic caucus.  It is true that both of these groups can change their registration and participate in a Democratic caucus but Republicans have their caucus the same night and their own competitive field of candidates to choose from.  Third, 40% of the respondents said they could change their decision before the caucus.

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A lot of my friends wonder why I support Edwards over Obama.  Obama is a great leader and has done wonderful things for the city of Chicago and the state of Illinois.  But he is not going to do great things for the country.  One of his major points is bipartisanship and ‘working across the aisle’.  It’s no surprise to me that this worked for him in Illinois, a solidly democratic state.  The governor and both senators are democrats; the Republican party in Illinois is so weak that they didn’t even have a candidate to run against Obama for a few weeks during his senate campaign.  And then the best they could do was Alan Keyes.  Don’t get me wrong, I think Obama won legitimately and that he has worked hard; I’m just saying his experience has not prepared him for the presidency.  He ‘fought’ the Daley political machine in Chicago as well, which is commendable given Daley’s seemingly interminable grip on the city.  But once again Chicago is a democratic city, and at the end of the day he was participating in intra-party politics; that is hardly an example of bipartisanship.  And bipartisanship itself is not the answer.  Compromising and working together is great and there hasn’t been a lot of that over the past 7 years – but it’s not for a lack of trying among the democrats; and the game is not going to change even if Obama channeled all the willpower and determination he could muster.

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So you can see why I support Edwards (previous post) and why I don’t support Obama.  If I can get some blog time soon I’ll go more in depth on both.

*This is the first post in what will likely be a series on why I support John Edwards.  I’ll post about my experiences too… later.

A lot of the candidates have good positions – they’re all very intelligent and driven people; but there is one thing that only John Edwards seems to realize and that is: that the source of America’s strength is the American people. The fact that America has a lot of problems right now is not in question, and I think that’s a direct reflection of the problems facing individual Americans. How can we expect international leadership if we don’t have domestic leadership? And how can we expect domestic leadership or results from a president who doesn’t directly address the problems facing individuals and crippling the nation? We can’t. A lot of candidates have great plans for restoring America’s position vis-a-vis the international community, but honestly – things will not change until the American people are empowered and enabled. And that’s the change that a John Edwards administration will bring.

John’s policies are solid across the board, but his dedication and commitment to strengthening the position of each and every American, whether through ensuring access to healthcare, creating green-collar jobs that will benefit both the environment and the economy, or cleaning up the mess of illegal immigration, always shows.

A president that cares as much about the American people as John does almost seems too good to be true. But it’s not! John’s policies are realistic, and here’s why:

He is not starting from scratch; he’s following through on issues he has been committed to for a long time. His message on poverty is nothing new – and he’s not waiting until he’s the president to do something about it. He founded a Center for Poverty Research at the University of North Carolina – Chapel Hill law school. He wants to increase American volunteerism and community participation at home and abroad with an environmental service group within Americorps and with the establishment of a “Marshall Corps” of professionals that can work on international stabilization and humanitarian projects. This is in addition to the successful One Corps program he and Elizabeth started. John simply wants to offer the whole country ideas that have already proven to be successful, the biggest of them being the College for Everyone program. Again, he started this as a successful non-profit in NC and wants to bring it to the entire country. He wants to offer a year of paid tuition, fees and books to any student willing to work part-time – thus offering thousands of Americans the opportunity to boost their incomes by $1,000,000 over the course of their careers. Talk about empowerment!

John is committed to the American people and he can stay committed because he has never taken money from corporate lobbyists (or Wall Street insiders – and that’s something no other major candidate can claim). That means there is nobody he has to answer to except the American people, and that’s how he’ll get it done.

This post has to be quick. I’m really hungry, but I’m comfortably ensconced in the top bunk and I’d rather just get on with it and go to bed instead of getting out.

The 2-day trip out here was thankfully uneventful, especially because we were driving a congressman’s car. Apparently on Saturday there was a huge ice storm… there were remnants of its damage strewn on the shoulders of the interstate: bent guardrails, cars in ditches, and most notably a toppled tractor trailer which had caused traffic to be diverted so its shipment could be unloaded. Luckily the worst weather we ran into was heavy rain.

We got to the Des Moines office around 5:30pm, and someone promptly put us (me, my dad, and the intern that rode with us) to work making phone calls about an event happening tomorrow. Just for the record, the office is not glamorous; but it is spacious, and that’s the important thing. I found out that I’m going to be an organizer. Not sure yet what I’ll be doing, but at least I have some kind of title. I think I’m going to get an email address too!

Another organizer and I are staying in the home of an Edwards’ supporter… so it’s basically like a homestay, but in Iowa. The family is nice and the house is very roomy. Our ‘host mom’ is really thoughtful and moved her two sons out of their bedroom and into the guestroom so that we could have a roomier space. After having a cup of tea with the parents and their two daughters I set to unpacking… and more or less took over a whole corner of the room. One of my main goals here is to stay warm, so to that end I brought 3 pairs of boots, 4 pairs of gloves, 5 scarves and countless sweaters. And I have all of them within easy reach.

Tomorrow is my first real day on the job and it starts with an 8:30am meeting. Goodnight!